ML//Time Series//hazard function

The instantaneous risk that an event happens right now, given it has not happened yet. Core object of survival analysis.

The instantaneous risk that an event happens right now, given it has not happened yet. Core object of survival analysis.

Turns a point process into a per-window risk you can forecast.

Distinguishes predicting that a system is fragile from predicting the exact moment it breaks. Most risk models do the first; timing is the hard part.

Knowing the hazard is high tells you the distribution, not the next draw: a loaded die is not an oracle.